Archive for October, 2009

Short Sale Commander will be at the 2009 Realtors Expo in San Diego Nov 13-16!

October 29th, 2009

If you are attending the 2009 Realtors Expo in San Diego next month, stop by and see us! Our booth is located in the Green Pavilion # 2342. You can try out Short Sale Commander for yourself or chat with some of our employees about your short sale experiences.

If you have not signed up to go to the 2009 Realtors Expo yet, but would like to, email me at kjones (at) sscmain (dot) com and I will send you a free pass to the exhibit floor.

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Part 2: Steps to Building a Short Sale Business

October 29th, 2009
by Peter L. Mosca

[Note: To follow is part two an excerpt of an interview with John D. Williamson, President/CEO, Uvestor.com, a real estate communications platform, who details some of the 'ins and outs' of a Short Sale business. To listen to the show archive or download an MP3, go to www.IncomePropertyInvestmentTalk.com/093009.]

Mosca: You talked a little bit about the hub, what about the spokes and the wheels?

Williamson: The work and the knowledge come in play when it comes to talking with the bank. You can’t be scared to talk to the bank. They are not that bad. The Loss Mitigation Department, which is the section of the bank that will take your call when you are trying to submit a short sale offer, will determine whether or not your offer on the house is going to make sense for them financially. The person who talks to the Bank, whether it is mom, dad, or son, needs to be the most organized person. They’re going to be the one who makes all the phone calls, follows up, organizes every piece of paper, and keeps the whole family on track. The person who is going to talk to the bank has got to be looking at every deal. You are going to need someone who is manning the phone and looking at these files every day and making the calls to the 800-number and sifting their way through the bank bureaucracy. In today’s world with over 300,000 foreclosure filings a month you have to have a commitment to follow their process, which means you fax one document to this number, you fax another document to that number, you call this person to tell them you faxed the number, you call this other person to see if they received it, and then you call next week to see if they scanned it in their systems.

Continue Reading….

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Homebuyer Tax Credit – Part Deux….Maybe

October 28th, 2009

And now for something completely different….

The Senate is close to approving a deal to replace the existing home buyer credit with another home buyer credit, only this one extends not only to new homebuyers, but people who have not bought a new home in the past 5 years.

Senate Close to Deal Replacing Homebuyer Tax Credit (Update2)

By Dawn Kopecki and Ryan Donmoyer

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) — U.S. Senate leaders moved closer to an agreement replacing an expiring $8,000 tax credit for first- time homebuyers with a smaller one that would expand access to so-called step-up purchasers, two people familiar with the matter said.

The deal would reduce the size of the tax credit to 10 percent of the sale’s price, capped at $7,290, the people said. The credit would be available on home purchases that are under contract by April 30, and borrowers would have 60 days more to close the sale. The existing credit is due to end Nov. 30.

The new agreement, which is still being negotiated and may change, would grant the credit to borrowers who have lived in their current home for at least five years. Lawmakers want to keep home sales from slipping as the economy struggles to recover from the worst drop in home prices since the Great Depression.

The demand for new homes and condominiums may increase by “more than two times because you’re allowing step-up buyers into the equation,” said Andrew Parmentier, a managing partner at Height Analytics, a research firm in Washington. “ You just opened up a whole new pool of people who can buy into those empty homes and empty condos that were built out.”

The income eligibility for first-time homebuyers would remain the same at $75,000 for individuals and $150,000 for couples. The income criteria for step-up buyers would be $125,000 for individuals and $250,000 for couples.

The credit would be limited to homes costing $800,000 or less. There is currently no price cap on home purchases.

Continue Reading….

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Beginning Social Media for Real Estate Agents

October 27th, 2009

Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn…… are these foreign words to you?  If so, here is a great post on getting started with Social Media.


New to Social Media? – Challenges

By Ines Hegedus-Garcia on October 26, 2009

This past week, Gia Freer and I were invited to speak at a panel for the Master Brokers Forum in Boca Raton, FL.  The panel’s subject was “Navigating the Social Media Ocean:  Facebook, Blogging and Beyond”.   Questions were prepared before the panel, answers rehearsed……but things changed a bit when we arrived at the venue.

The average age of attendees was late 50’s – everyone there was a top producing agent with years in the business and successful businesses at that.  So why were these people interested in Social Media for their business?  Some were just curious and had no intention to even venture into trying something new, but a lot of them, to my surprise, recognized that it was important to at least get their feet wet and see what all the commotion was about.

The first question – and one I will share because we need to ponder and then ponder some more, was:

If I’m new to social media, what are the three most important things I should do RIGHT NOW?

Some of us have been at this for a while and going back to basics may seem a bit trivial and useless….but guess what??  If you really think about this question, it may simplify your social media marketing strategy today.

Gia answered the following:

  1. Put up profiles NOW (in Twitter, Facebook and Linked In)
  2. Start at Blog
  3. Change your business cards  (include your social media stuff)

Continue Reading….

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Monday Morning News

October 26th, 2009

We are hard at work here at Short Sale Commander Central!  We plan on releasing the newest updates in the next few days, stay tuned on what these will include.

We also now have a new Tech Support Manager, Greg White.  If you need any help, here is here M-F 9-6 EST.

Housing number from September have been released and housing sales are on the rise.  Surprise, surprise…a majority of the houses are distressed properties!

Home Sales in South Rise 9 Pct From a Year Ago

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: October 23, 2009

Filed at 12:15 p.m. ET

WASHINGTON (AP) — September home sales in the South jumped more than 9 percent from last year as buyers snapped up bargain-priced homes and foreclosures.

The region registered 178,000 home resales last month, the National Association of Realtors said Friday. The median price was $153,500, a 7.6 percent decline from last September, when it was $166,200.

Nationally, sales of existing homes rose almost 8 percent over September a year ago, without adjusting for seasonal factors. The median sales price was $174,900, an almost 9 percent decline from $191,200 a year ago.

Continue reading….

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11 Incredible Homes From Around the World for Under $50K

October 23rd, 2009

bulgaria
No doubt there will be a few reading ready to point out the error in the title. Surely, it’s a mistake? Homes for less than 50K? No way! But yet, it’s true.

Since the global financial debacle of last year, it’s shocking how many homes are available for sale for under US$50,000, especially in the US where the housing market was hit hardest. Across the States it’s now relatively easy to find affordable homes and get quite a bit for your money into the bargain. Unfortunately, it’s usually as a result of some poor soul having had their home repossessed following foreclosure. And while some of the homes on offer require a lot of creative flair and vision to make them inhabitable again, others are in such a good state they’re an absolute steal. Here, we share a handful we’ve found with you.

And in case you’re tempted to buy elsewhere, we also show what you could get for your 50K in other parts of the world. Happy house hunting!

Continue Reading……

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Steps to Building a Short Sale Business (Realty Times)

October 22nd, 2009
by Peter L. Mosca

[Note: To follow is an excerpt of an interview with John D. Williamson, President/CEO, Uvestor.com, a real estate communications platform, who details some of the 'ins and outs' of what a Short Sale business would look like, how to organize it, who should be on the team and their individual responsibilities, and basically gives an understanding so you can master the 'paper' game that's involved in creating such a system. To listen to the show archive or download an MP3, go to www.IncomePropertyInvestmentTalk.com/093009.]

Mosca: Knowing how to maneuver the complexities of short sales as well as how to identify the distinct real estate opportunities in foreclosure are not merely good skills to have in today’s market, they are critical. What is your take on this market and the importance for investors and realtors to understand this particular marketplace?

Williamson: It is important to have those skills to survive in this market. If I was a REALTOR or an investor getting in the game in Florida or California, you better believe I better know how to do a short sale and put together a package the right way if I am going to ever be able to close any of my deals.

Mosca: Is there a difference between the short sale and the foreclosure?

Williamson: Foreclosure is a large term that encompasses everything from the first time that a homeowner goes into the process of not paying their mortgage. It takes the bank a few months to catch up, then they have to file a notice of default. That’s the official start date, but when people talk about foreclosures, they are really talking about that pre-foreclosure stage as well when a homeowner knows they are not going to be able to catch up and is looking for a way out. They can’t sell their house because they owe more than it is worth or they just don’t have a house that can be sold in a timely fashion. That’s when it is really more opportunistic for an investor to get involved. After the foreclosure process proceeds through to the notice of default at the courthouse and that information becomes public, which is when you see a lot of these foreclosure lists being generated. When that official notice of default is posted, the auction happens. Auctions these days are pretty much a formality. There are not a whole lot of folks buying properties at the auction and that’s mostly because the banks are forced to take a property through auction legally to give the seller certain rights, to give the creditors certain rights but because just about everybody owes more than their house is worth, the banks are still trying to get what they are owed and of course, that’s not a deal for anybody.

Mosca: What happens after the auction?

Williamson: The bank takes it over as an REO. This is when REALTORS are involved more frequently and throughout the REO process. The bank says, “Mr. Realtor, broker we want you to sell it. We’ve got this relationship with you. By the way, we know the carpet is pee stained and there is dirt all over the walls and the windows are broken and the grass is four feet high and the fence is broken. We are going to need you to go ahead and fix all of that, go ahead and put out the money. When we close the property we’ll start taking bids on it and when we close the property, we’ll pay you back for those expenses.”

There are different opportunities at different phases for different types of people, whether you are trying to make money doing a wholesale, you’re just trying to create a deal and flip it to somebody who will do the fix up and that can happen in the pre-foreclosure status. That can also happen in the REO area which in some parts of the country, the REO is actually now a bigger opportunities in the pre-foreclosure and it really has to do with the pain in the butt it is to facilitate a short sale for the bank. It’s very expensive to take these offers, walk them through the process, gather document after document, send an appraiser out to the property to do the BPO, which is what they use as their copy of an appraisal then they get all of that back.

They then have to submit those lowball offers to their investor which is usually Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac these days. Sometimes it’s in house. Weeks pass in that time and then all of a sudden the auction date that was previously scheduled comes up and so they can go ahead and go through with the auction, they also have insurance reasons as an incentive to go through the auction process. It does cost several thousand dollars to execute to pay the attorneys, to pay the master commissioners and the different entities involved in that but there are insurance claims that can be made on the other side of that when a bank buys the property back. It is sometimes where you are going to see a situation where and this has happened to me in businesses that I have consulted with. They were negotiating a short sale that didn’t go through.

The option comes and the bank buys it back. Thirty days later it is on the market for at or below what their offer was even after they went through the REO process and have spent all of the money. It’s a really interesting situation that doesn’t always make intuitive sense because different people are incentivised at different phases of the process and so when you are doing this, it’s important to know what the process is.

Mosca: Let’s talk a little bit about how to create a business plan … what’s the starting point?

Williamson: Before you get started, you’ve got to know if you really want to run the race. Despite all of the late night infomercials, the business of real estate happens to be a business and not just a hobby. Don’t let that hinder you though. If you’re the type of person that is the get up and go and can manage their time and can manage people and can interact with people, inspire confidence and you are willing to learn along the way then there really is an opportunity for you. There is an old adage that talks about how a lot of great businesses are started in recessions and starting Uvestor myself at this time, I hope to fit that category and I think a lot of small business people can fit that category as well.

Mosca: Is there a characteristic or characteristics that you need in order to move forward?

Williamson: The key to getting into this is to understand that there are many pieces to the puzzle. Let’s take the assumption of someone who doesn’t have any savings so they are not actually going and buying and holding property. That’s capital intensive. They are not even going to be able to rehab. That is an area where the art of performing a short sale can be very lucrative because if you are able to put the deal together and make it happen, then you can actually reap a huge reward without ever actually putting your own money on the table. Of course, if you have money, money greases every wheel. It makes everything easier, but we will take it from the no money standpoint and talk about how to do that. The key starting point is to realize you need more than just one person to do this the right way. I actually think this is the perfect family business. It’s about peoples’ lives. Homes are the most important thing in someone’s life often and you are going to be dealing with people that are losing their home, so there is some psycological perception and willingness to listen to a person, understand what they are going through, and be able to still advise them appropriately without coming across as a used car saleman. You are really not trying to take someone’s home, you are trying to help them out. If you are willing to do all the different pieces of the short sale business, you can get it done.

Mosca: A family business in the traditional sense?

Williamson: Look at it as the family business with a mom, a dad, and a son; a hub and spoke approach. The hub is really the center of the business, which for this case we will just say that is dad. He’s the center of the business. Practically, you have to get leads. Getting leads requires having marketing pieces that you distribute. That could be putting mailers together for the folks that show up on the NOD (Notice of Default) list at the courthouse. That can also be facilitated by buying a list of people who are 60 to 90 or 120 days late from the credit reporting agencies. This can be done extremely economically for about $.40 per name and then mailing them. Let’s say mom has better handwriting than dad and she’s the one who writes the postcards with its preprint on the front and on the back it has a direct message that is handwritten so it is guarenteed to be read.

Mosca: Does technology play a role?

Williamson: There are a lot of ways to do that today whether you are befriending everyone on Facebook or on Twitter or any of the Web 2.0 sites that can help you do that. There is also the traditional marketing route that you can make easier on yourself. They have services that will mail things for you. There are people who will answer the incoming phone calls and read a predefined script to understand who is following up with your marketing and do that initial prescreening. These are services that you can higher to be done for pretty economical costs. You can also do most of them in-house.

Mosca: What makes one property something that you want to flip and get to first-time home buyers as opposed to sell to an investor?

Williamson: If it needs a lot of work, you are going to probably have to sell to an investor. If it doesn’t need that much work than you can sell to anyone else. It’s practical and where in my analogy that mom comes into play because mom says, “we just really need to put some paint and will change out those cabinet knobs, we will clean out the windows and mow the grass and this place will look great.” A big help because you can make a home look presentable and marketable to people who are going to move into it with fairly little money.

You can do that while your marketing the property to be sold as you are negotiating the short sale. If this is your first time going out in convincing a homeowner to allow you to do a short sale, you want to probably be flipping this to an investor because it’s going to be an easier transaction but you’re not going to be making as much money. If the investor has to go in and he’s looking for a good deal, he is going to have to put in that $10 or $15 or $25,000 into the house, he’s going to need a severe discount. That process is called wholesaling whereby you are wholesaling it for a deep discount to another investor to do the work. You’ve got to know that going in and if it’s a junker and maybe this home isn’t worth anything, you pass it up. You have to be a little bit strategic when you are doing this and you don’t just take everything that comes your way just because it came your way.

http://realtytimes.com/rtpages/20091022_steps.htm

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Homes: About to get much cheaper

October 21st, 2009

By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer

If you thought home prices were bottoming out, you may be wrong. They’re expected to head a lot lower.

Home values are predicted to drop in 342 out of 381 markets during the next year, according to a new forecast of real estate prices.

Overall, the national median home price is predicted to drop 11.3% by June 30, 2010, according to Fiserv, a financial information and analysis firm. For the following year, the firm anticipates some stabilization with prices rising 3.6%.

In the past, Fiserv anticipated the rapid decline in home-sale prices over the past few years — though it underestimated the scope.

Mark Zandi, chief economist with Moody’s Economy.com, agreed with Fiserv’s current assessments. “I think more price declines are coming because the foreclosure crisis is not over,” he said.

In fact, those areas with high concentrations of foreclosure sales will experience the steepest drops, according to Fiserv. Miami, for example, is expected to be the biggest loser. Prices are forecast to plunge 29.9% by next June — after having already fallen a whopping 48% during the past three years.

If Fiserv’s forecast holds, Miami real median home price will tumble to $142,000 by June 2011.

In Orlando, Fla., the second-worst performing market, Fiserv anticipates a 27% price collapse by June 2010, followed by a less severe drop the following year. In Hanford, Calif., prices are estimated to drop 26.9% and continue falling 9.5% in 2011; in Naples, Fla., they’re expected to fall 26.8% and then flatten out.

Other notable losers include Las Vegas, where prices have already fallen 54.6% and are expected to lose another 23.9% by June 2010. In Phoenix values have already collapsed by 54% and could fall another 23.4%. In both cities, Fiserv anticipates the losses to continue into 2011, but they will be less than 5%.

Prices had stabilized

The latest forecast is at odds with the past few months of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price index. That report has given hope that most housing markets may have already stabilized because the composite index of 20 cities rose in May, June and July. Nationally, it found that home prices have gained 3.6%.

Brad Hunter, chief economist for Metrostudy, which provides housing market information to the industry, however, expects a change in fortunes, however.

“I’m afraid Case-Shiller may be just a temporary reprieve,” he said.

He pointed out that the tax credit for first-time home buyers helped support prices during the three months of Case-Shiller gains. By the end of November, the credit will have been used by 1.8 million homebuyers, at least 355,000 of whom would not have bought a house without the tax break, according to estimates by the National Association of Realtors. But the market assistance ends when the credit expires on Dec. 1.

Hunter also sees a new wave of foreclosure problems coming from higher priced loans and prime mortgages. He expects a high failure rate for option ARM loans that were issued to prime customers so they could buy homes in bubble markets, such as California and Florida. In those areas, prices for even modest homes had skyrocketed.

Winners

A handful of metro areas will buck the trend, according to Fiserv. Six markets will remain flat, and 33 will actually post gains. The biggest winner will be the Kennewick, Wash., metro area, where home prices have ramped up 8.9% over the past three years and are expected to increase another 3.4% by June 2010.

Fairbanks, Alaska, prices are anticipated to rise 2.5%, while Anchorage will climb 2.1%. Elmira, N.Y., prices may inch up 1.8%.

The nation’s biggest metro area, New York City, will underperform the nation as a whole over the next two years, according to Fiserv. Prices, which have already fallen 21.7% to a median of $375,000, are expected to fall 17.4% by June 2011.

Home values in the nation’s second largest city, Los Angeles, have fallen 43.3% since June 2006 to a median of $313,000. They are expected to dive another 20.2% over by June 2010, and then start to climb in 2011. Chicago prices, which have fallen 25.2% to $227,000, will drop only 4.1% over the next 12 months and then starting to climb.

The Detroit metro area now has the dubious distinction of having the lowest home prices in the country. Prices have dropped 51.7% to a median of $50,000. They’re expected to fall another 9.1% and then stabilize.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Homes-About-to-get-much-cnnm-699910894.html?x=0

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The rich bail faster on mortgages

October 19th, 2009

Wealthy but ‘underwater’ homeowners are giving up on paying their mortgages as a financial tactic, a study finds. Those with smaller loans are less likely to do so.

By Marilyn Lewis

Increasingly, homeowners with good credit and no late payments are making what appears to be a strategic decision to walk away when their home’s value falls below what’s owed.

“The American consumer has had a long-held taboo against walking away from the home, and this crisis seems to be eroding that,” concludes a report on research by Experian, the credit agency, and Oliver Wyman, a management consultant company.

The better their credit rating, the more likely homeowners were to default. The trend is most pronounced where prices have fallen furthest: Florida and the West, especially California.

The finding — that 588,000 borrowers appear to have strategically defaulted in 2008, a 128% increase from the year before — surprised the researchers. Piyush Tantia, who conducted the research for Oliver Wyman, and Charles Chung of Experian spotted the trend while analyzing 24 million credit files to see what they could learn about mortgage delinquency.

Foreclosure as a financial strategy

Strategic defaulters stand out among the 14 million to 15 million “underwater” mortgages, the researchers said, because they:

  • Pay all their bills consistently and on time until abruptly stopping mortgage payments with no attempt to get current again.
  • Keep current on other debts after defaulting on the mortgage.
  • Keep up payments on home equity lines of credit, sometimes drawing out cash, before defaulting on both the first mortgage and credit line.

This “sophisticated” combination of moves and timing suggests borrowers are employing foreclosure as a calculated financial strategy, said Tantia and Chung.

They conclude that 18% of the borrowers with mortgages 60 days past due in the fourth quarter of 2008 were acting strategically, up from 3% — “barely noticeable,” the report says — in late 2004. Most defaults, however, are driven by financial distress. Defaults due to troubled finances grew from 31% to 51% of loans in the same time frame.

Broken taboo

It appears that the more money people feel they’re losing, the more likely they are to bolt. Owners with smaller loans were less likely to strategically default, even when facing the same percentage of loss.

For example, “once you hit the $200,000-and-up loan size in California, you start to see about 33% strategic defaults.” said Tantia. A similar pattern, with 18% to 20% strategic defaults and lower loan amounts, plays out in the rest of the country: “This tells us that the threshold probably is a dollar value and not a percentage.”

From 2005 to 2008, strategic defaults rose by 68 times in California, by 46 times in Florida and by three to 18 times in other regions. Strategic default was seven times more common among mortgages originated in 2006 than those begun in 2004.

“Starting about a year ago, the good-credit people, the Little League coaches, the schoolteachers and the retail managers, the higher levels, started walking away,” says Kurtis Squyres, whose company, FarBelowMarket.com, buys homes in the Coachella Valley east of Los Angeles that banks have foreclosed on and sells the properties to investors. “I even had a DA who had talked about it. He was very seriously considering buying another house because his credit was still intact, and then walking. His conscience got the better of him, but that shows how tempting it is.”

Makes sense to some

Strategic defaults may sound cynical, but such calculations are becoming familiar to real-estate professionals. The word is that “your credit will heal before you recover what you borrowed against it,” says Squyres. The alternative, a short sale, is difficult, lengthy and uncertain of success, he says.

Even if true, strategic defaulters face a long sentence in credit hell: It takes seven years plus 180 days from the date of the first missed mortgage payment for a foreclosure to exit your credit record, says Liz Pulliam Weston, an MSN Money personal finance columnist.

“Your credit scores start getting trashed the minute you miss a payment. The more payments you miss, the worse the damage,” says Weston, the author of “Your Credit Score, Your Money & What’s at Stake.” “The effect on your scores diminishes over time if you handle credit responsibly from then on.”

Almost certainly your score will fall into subprime territory, a FICO score of 620 or less. “I know one real-estate investor with multiple foreclosures whose score fell to 305 — just above the absolute bottom,” Weston says.

However, real-estate agent Heidi Wyble, a short-sale expert in La Quinta, Calif., believes the statistics on strategic defaulters hide factors “behind the scenes,” like divorce, impending job loss or an unsuccessful struggle to get bank approval for a short sale. And if borrowers are becoming more ruthless, she says, banks weren’t exactly philanthropists to begin with.

Despite counseling 10 to 20 clients a week, she says she hasn’t seen many who go straight into default without a thought about their credit.

The big picture

In June, three university researchers published a separate look at strategic defaults (“Moral and Social Restraints to Strategic Default on Mortgages“). They predicted that, if a home’s value slips 15% or more below the mortgage amount, about 26% of homeowners who could afford their payments would default anyway.

“We’re in a completely different economic environment today, where for the first time since the Great Debate millions of Americans have mortgage loans that exceed the value of their home,” that paper says. It concludes that the stigma of default is less severe among people younger than 35 and older than 65, among those with higher incomes or more education and among African-Americans.

Banks and government produce reams of data on foreclosures, including missed payments, loan types and amounts and loan-to-value ratio.  But lenders can’t access data on borrowers’ income and assets, which would tell more about the motivations of defaulters.

Tantia and Chung, who oversees Experian’s “decision sciences” research, used the bigger credit picture to try to get around that limitation, hoping their work would help government and banks identify the troubled borrowers most likely to make good use of government help.

“The question that drove us to do the study in the first place is: ‘How do we avoid these foreclosures?’” said Tantia. “And all the loan modification programs that the government has launched: ‘Are they enough?’”

The researchers found distinctly different behavior among the three largest groups of people in default:

  • “Strategic” defaulters have perfect payment histories before suddenly going 60 days late on their mortgages. After default they remain current on other debts. Another surprise: Two-thirds of strategic defaulters bail on primary homes, not investments. However, strategic defaults are growing among owners of all homes. “It’s useless to spend energy modifying these loans because it’s not the payment that matters in their case,” says Chung. They are likely to take advantage of loan-modification programs for free rent and then default again.
  • “Distressed” defaulters: Most — 53% — of defaulting property owners fit the conventional picture: They skip payments on the mortgage and other debts, yet keep trying to recover by paying occasionally until they’re overwhelmed. These defaulters need loan modifications and help managing finances and even those may not be enough to prevent eventual failure.
  • Cash-flow “managers” are the heroes of the report; in situations identical to those of the strategic defaulters, they show the intention to make good on mortgages by continuing to try to pay even after skipping some payments. A third of this group pulls the loan out of trouble within six months. “This group’s performance is about twice as strong as average,” the report says. With resources and motivation, it found, people in this group could be the best candidates for loan-modification offers.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Banking/YourCreditRating/the-rich-bail-faster-on-mortgages.aspx

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Stock bulls await the dollar’s collapse

October 15th, 2009

By Anthony Mirhaydar

While the primary trend for stocks continues to arch skyward, we are beginning to see equity traders react to some new developments over in the world of fixed-income, commodities, and currencies. This has made for choppy trading over the last few days.

Much of the catalyst for the recent gains in equities has been the depreciation of the U.S. dollar. Traders are using the greenback as a funding currency in carry trades with riskier, higher yielding assets because of super-low U.S. interest rates. They borrow dollars cheaply, sell them short, and use the proceeds to buy commodities and bonds in countries like Brazil and Australia.

They can do this with confidence because of the apparent support for dollar devaluation among officials in Washington — who are hoping to boost employment by reviving the competitiveness of our exports — along with prolonged support for low rates at the Federal Reserve.

With so much leverage at work in the carry trade, investors are very sensitive to unfavorable position movements. So whenever the U.S. dollar rises, stocks fall, bonds fall, gold falls, and the yen sinks, it causes carry traders to cringe in agony. Any indication that cross-asset correlation trends are changing, be it statements by policymakers or rumors in the newspapers, will cause unease.

This is important because you must recognize that at this point in the cycle, it’s not corporate earnings reports or economic data causing the most volatility lately: It’s changes in currency relationships as traders react to government or central bank officials’ comments.

There were a few developments over the past week that furrowed the brows of hedgies in the carry trade.

The first were those comments from Bernanke that the Fed won’t print money forever. During a speech last Thursday night, Bernanke discussed how the bank plans to exit its accommodative policy stance. There was lots of talk about reducing the amount of reserves held by money center banks along with interest rate increases to discourage lending.

This is a big change in tone from just a few months ago, when all the Fed could talk about was how much debt it wanted to buy. But I still think he is only saying this to keep the decline of the dollar from being a completely one-way trade. Before becoming Fed chairman Bernanke made a career out of studying and explaining why the Fed should not curb easy-money policies amid a deflation threat until the danger has clearly passed. That moment has been defined by him and others as a point at which rock-solid employment growth has been established. Figure late 2010 at the earliest.

We also had reports that central banks in Thailand, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan were actively buying the dollar to check its fall against their currencies. The idea is that their exporters can’t handle such a dramatic drop in profitability and competitiveness. Since the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s, export-oriented countries on the Pacific Rim have enjoyed a period of prosperity enabled by their devalued currencies, a strong dollar, and the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves. These people aren’t going to give all that up easily.

All of this, along with building political pressure from the Republican Party to halt the dollar’s slide, has helped stabilize the dollar over the last month. Yet if stocks are to push higher from here, as I believe they are, then it may be on the back of continued declines in the dollar. U.S. officials will talk about how they prefer a strong dollar, but won’t do anything about it.

Disclosure: The author does not own or control a position in any of the funds or companies mentioned.

Anthony Mirhaydari is a researcher for the Strategic Advantage investment newsletter. He can be contacted at anthony.mirhaydari@live.com. Feel free to comment below.

http://blogs.moneycentral.msn.com/topstocks/archive/2009/10/13/stock-bulls-await-the-dollar-s-collapse.aspx

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